2000 GUINEAS Contenders (Value Bets in Green)

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 27 April 2009 - 21.45 pm
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Delegator : Course winner, knows Newmarket, as a 2 y-o went straight from maiden to Gr I company on his 3rd run, came 5th behind Intense Focus in the Darley Dewhurst Stakes over 7 furlongs. Won for his reappearance in the famous trial named the Craven Stakes. Highly regarded, undoubtedly of Group I calibre and is better suited by the mile. Appears a logical favourite.

Gan Amhras : Beat Derby entry MasteroftheHorse in a maiden at Naas, then came 2nd in the Goffs Parksanilla Million at the Curragh last year and the form of this 2 y-o contest worked out very well. Finished behind Soul City, the latter finished ahead of JukeBox Jury, a solid 2 y-o performer; also defeated stablemate Intense Focus in that same race. Hence provided he has enjoyed a good winter there is plenty to like about him. Appears a solid basis.

Rip Van Winkle : GrIII winner at 2, then disappointed badly in the Dewhurst behind Intense Focus when eased down after didn't find much in the straight. Reportedly had a bruise after workout at Ballydoyle so hard to say if fully fit for Saturday's contest. Performance below par in Dewhurst would recommend caution. Very hard to say if he will meet expectations.

MasterCraftsMan : Rather exposed as a juvenile, 5 races on the clock, first 3 over 6 furlongs, showed plenty of speed at 2. Last 2 runs over 7 furlongs, just held on to score in National Stakes GrI in Ireland. Routed to France where disappointed in GrI Jean Luc Lagardere at Longchamp behind Naaqoos. Stamina needs to be answered over the Rowley Mile. Trainer boasts a fantastic record though.

Evasive : Quite versatile colt, ran on Polytrack, Right-Handed and Left-Handed. Horris Hills stakes GrIII victor at Newbury at 2 which proved a doubtful trial for the Guineas. Style of victory suggest that a mile will be a long trip. Will need to improve on stamina but could not be better looked after.

Arazan : Unexposed, adaptable and likely to improve. Won first 2 outings in Firm and Heavy. Impressive winner in the Futurity Stakes Gr II at the Curragh, this half-brother to Azamour defeated the likes of Westphalia, Drumbeat later on placed in Group I events. 3rd behind MasterCrafstman in the National stakes but stayed on well under pressure. Guarantedd to like the trip and very appealing for eachway backers.

Cityscape : Consistent but better was expected when beaten 1 length and 3/4 length by Vocalised and Jukebox Jury, both colts will not be part of the race. Finds it hard to break well and crucial in this type of tournament. Will appreciate the trip and course but past performances indicate win will prove very tough task.

Intense Focus : Early developer who has ran up to 10 times already. Plenty of dash and excellent performer over 6 and 7 furlongs, triumphed in the Dewhurst Stakes Gr I but has not proven much over the mile yet. Could not be in better hands, however seems unlikely to improve much.

Sea the Stars : Lifted trophy in Beresford Stakes GrII at the Curragh. Sure to stay and bred to be a very useful middle-distance horse. Still very competitive for a place but a win seems difficult. Stamina is not an issue so trainer might run to improve his speed, is engaged in the Derby too.

Finjaan : Not always very fortunate but very decent performer over sprint distances, 2 victories over 5 furlongs. Denied a clear run in the Middle Park Stakes GrI at Newmarket, later on battled really well, unhappy in the Dewhurst when stepped up to 7 furlongs. Trip looks an issue though however a good placing would not be a surprise at all. Interesting for value bet.

Lord Shanakill : Quite exposed, will turn on for the 9th run of his career. Just an inch below 5-7 furlongs last season's reigning juveniles but ultra-consistent and could well have been crowded in GrI event. Never ran a bad race and 6 months-break will have done him the world of good. Big question mark though as never been tried on the mile.

Ashram : Interesting competitor trained by John Hills as a juvenile then sold to Godolphin. Often slow into stride which might prove costly though possible that new connections sorted this out. Once into race very likely to stay on, already won twice at Newmarket and good display can be expected.

Westphalia : Decent animal but rather exposed now. Versatile and able to adapt anywhere, ran in Ireland, England, America and France. Won the Champagne Stakes GrII at Doncaster over 7 furlongs and placed in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile 2nd to Donavitum. Reappeance in Prix de Fontainebleau GrIII (2000 French Guineas trial) where ran below par although trainer was happy with him. Last run and little scope for improvement causes concern.

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Selections : Arazan & Gan Amhras
Biggest threat : Delegator
Outsiders : Finjaan & Sea the Stars





sources : www.racingpost.com - www.wikipedia.org