2000 GUINEAS Contenders (Value Bets in Green)

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 27 April 2009 - 21.45 pm
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Delegator : Course winner, knows Newmarket, as a 2 y-o went straight from maiden to Gr I company on his 3rd run, came 5th behind Intense Focus in the Darley Dewhurst Stakes over 7 furlongs. Won for his reappearance in the famous trial named the Craven Stakes. Highly regarded, undoubtedly of Group I calibre and is better suited by the mile. Appears a logical favourite.

Gan Amhras : Beat Derby entry MasteroftheHorse in a maiden at Naas, then came 2nd in the Goffs Parksanilla Million at the Curragh last year and the form of this 2 y-o contest worked out very well. Finished behind Soul City, the latter finished ahead of JukeBox Jury, a solid 2 y-o performer; also defeated stablemate Intense Focus in that same race. Hence provided he has enjoyed a good winter there is plenty to like about him. Appears a solid basis.

Rip Van Winkle : GrIII winner at 2, then disappointed badly in the Dewhurst behind Intense Focus when eased down after didn't find much in the straight. Reportedly had a bruise after workout at Ballydoyle so hard to say if fully fit for Saturday's contest. Performance below par in Dewhurst would recommend caution. Very hard to say if he will meet expectations.

MasterCraftsMan : Rather exposed as a juvenile, 5 races on the clock, first 3 over 6 furlongs, showed plenty of speed at 2. Last 2 runs over 7 furlongs, just held on to score in National Stakes GrI in Ireland. Routed to France where disappointed in GrI Jean Luc Lagardere at Longchamp behind Naaqoos. Stamina needs to be answered over the Rowley Mile. Trainer boasts a fantastic record though.

Evasive : Quite versatile colt, ran on Polytrack, Right-Handed and Left-Handed. Horris Hills stakes GrIII victor at Newbury at 2 which proved a doubtful trial for the Guineas. Style of victory suggest that a mile will be a long trip. Will need to improve on stamina but could not be better looked after.

Arazan : Unexposed, adaptable and likely to improve. Won first 2 outings in Firm and Heavy. Impressive winner in the Futurity Stakes Gr II at the Curragh, this half-brother to Azamour defeated the likes of Westphalia, Drumbeat later on placed in Group I events. 3rd behind MasterCrafstman in the National stakes but stayed on well under pressure. Guarantedd to like the trip and very appealing for eachway backers.

Cityscape : Consistent but better was expected when beaten 1 length and 3/4 length by Vocalised and Jukebox Jury, both colts will not be part of the race. Finds it hard to break well and crucial in this type of tournament. Will appreciate the trip and course but past performances indicate win will prove very tough task.

Intense Focus : Early developer who has ran up to 10 times already. Plenty of dash and excellent performer over 6 and 7 furlongs, triumphed in the Dewhurst Stakes Gr I but has not proven much over the mile yet. Could not be in better hands, however seems unlikely to improve much.

Sea the Stars : Lifted trophy in Beresford Stakes GrII at the Curragh. Sure to stay and bred to be a very useful middle-distance horse. Still very competitive for a place but a win seems difficult. Stamina is not an issue so trainer might run to improve his speed, is engaged in the Derby too.

Finjaan : Not always very fortunate but very decent performer over sprint distances, 2 victories over 5 furlongs. Denied a clear run in the Middle Park Stakes GrI at Newmarket, later on battled really well, unhappy in the Dewhurst when stepped up to 7 furlongs. Trip looks an issue though however a good placing would not be a surprise at all. Interesting for value bet.

Lord Shanakill : Quite exposed, will turn on for the 9th run of his career. Just an inch below 5-7 furlongs last season's reigning juveniles but ultra-consistent and could well have been crowded in GrI event. Never ran a bad race and 6 months-break will have done him the world of good. Big question mark though as never been tried on the mile.

Ashram : Interesting competitor trained by John Hills as a juvenile then sold to Godolphin. Often slow into stride which might prove costly though possible that new connections sorted this out. Once into race very likely to stay on, already won twice at Newmarket and good display can be expected.

Westphalia : Decent animal but rather exposed now. Versatile and able to adapt anywhere, ran in Ireland, England, America and France. Won the Champagne Stakes GrII at Doncaster over 7 furlongs and placed in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile 2nd to Donavitum. Reappeance in Prix de Fontainebleau GrIII (2000 French Guineas trial) where ran below par although trainer was happy with him. Last run and little scope for improvement causes concern.

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Selections : Arazan & Gan Amhras
Biggest threat : Delegator
Outsiders : Finjaan & Sea the Stars





sources : www.racingpost.com - www.wikipedia.org

April 12 - Gr III - Prix de Fontainebleau - Longchamp

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 11 April 2009 - 22.02 pm
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April 12th - Prix de Fontainebleau - Longchamp - 1m - Gr III

Ran over a mile on the 'Grande Piste' which is the most selective circuit at Longchamp, the Prix de Fontainebleau is the Poule d'essai des Poulains' (2000 French Guineas) prep race.

Sand Tiger for Andre Fabre won very easily at Maisons-Laffitte last year for his only start and is hard to evaluate but he is certainly a big danger.

Silver Frost won a Listed race last time out at Saint Cloud and came 3rd of the Gr I Criterium International last year and is also a GrIII winner at Deauville. He just got the better of Milanais by two lengths in his last run but I feel that he races to the best of his ability on left handed racecourses on soft to heavy ground.

Westphalia's bank account is the biggest and seems to hold the best credentials, he has not run for 6 months but Aidan O'Brien is a master trainer.

Milanais finished a neck behind Naaqoos in the Gr I Jean-Luc Lagardere over 7f last year and was rated amongst the best 2yo in 2008. Beat the Dewhurst winner Intense Focus and MasterCraftMan. 2nd from Soul City and ahead of Jukebox Jury at Longchamp in the Gr III Prix de la Rochette, the Bertrand Watrigant - trained colt also finished a good 4th behind Bushranger earlier on in the Prix Morny (Gr I).
He has had a good outing, coming back from a 4 and a half months break, is off Group 1 caliber and most of all he is familiar with Longchamp, a track that suits him very well.

A good each value bet is Milanais who should be offered at double figures, around 10/1, he is my favorite on paper, my only concern is the fact that he has raced on 12 occasions before.

Outsiders :

Set Sail has a very thin chance on form, so does the Broken in Light. Oiseau de feu steps up in grade but his experience has been on all-weather tracks and left handed tracks which is a bit of a worry.
Take d'Or's only win came up lately in March on the A.W but it looked like a weak race at Deauville.

Selection : Milanais
Biggest threat : Westphalia
Danger : Sand Tiger

documentation : www.racingpost.com - www.wikipedia.com

Oct/Nov 2009 - Saint Cloud Critérium International Gr I - 2y.o - 1m

Oct/Nov 2009 - Critérium International
-Saint Cloud –Group I - 2y.o - 1m

For 2 y.o exclusively. Ran at Saint Cloud, on the Val D' Or racetrack, in the south western parts of Paris, this race is fairly recent. It was created in 2001 and takes place in late October - early November. At this time of year, the ground is either very soft or heavy. I insist on this ground feature indeed. It takes a special 2 y.o to win a Group 1 event in v.soft/heavy ground plus a few past winners' names speak for themselves...French trained horses have won 6 times out of 8. British trained horses scored on two occasions in 2006 and 2008. An interesting fact is the French horses all have had a similar profile and the 2 British triumphants took different paths.

Year	Name	Placings	Last Rating (RPR)	Trainer	significant wins	Last win
2008	Zafisio (IRE)	1.1.4	46	GB	7f to 9f on soft & Heavy	Listed.R
2007	Thewayyouare (US)**	7.1.1.1	51.5	FR	8f on soft	Gr III
2006	Mount Nelson (GB)	2.1	44	IRE	7f on v.soft	Maid.
2005	Carlotamix (FR) *	1.1	49	FR	8f good & soft	Gr III
2004	Helios Quercus (FR )*	1.1.4.1.4.1.1	48.5	FR	8f good to soft & v.soft	Gr III
2003	Bago (FR) *	1.1.1	51.5	FR	8f on soft	Gr III
2002	Dalakhani (IRE)*	1.1	51	FR	7f to 8f on good & soft	Gr III
2001	Act One (GB)**	1.1	50.5	FR	won 8f on very soft	Gr III

Facts : All previous victors ran at least on two occasions and won at least once.

Ability to handle ground : From 2001 to 2008, Zafisio, Thewayyouare, Mount Nelson, Carlotamix, Helios Quercus, Bago, Dalakhani & Act One all scored once or more on soft ground. Beaucoup sur terrain très souple et tous sur le mile à l’exception de Mount Nelson qui enleva son maiden sur 1.400m.

Distance & ratings : Since the Criterium's creation in 2001, all French trained horses previously scored at Group III level (Prix des Chênes, 1m – Longchamp & Prix Thomas Bryon, Saint-Cloud -1m) with ratings of 107+ (RPR - RacingPostRatings). Horses marked with * took the Prix des Chênes, those with ** the Thomas Bryon.

Exceptions : Les visiteurs détiennent 2 victoires ; la première enlevée par Mount Nelson (rating de 44), entraîné par Aidan O’Brien et la deuxième par Zafisio, sous l’entraînement de Paul Blockley. On note que les lauréats d’outre-Manche avaient (avant course) des valeurs bien inférieures aux précédents vainqueurs tricolores (à l’image de Bago ou d’Act One par exemple) mais qu’ils avaient tous deux bien gagné en terrain collant ou lourd. En 2006 et 2008, le terrain de l’hippodrome du val d’Or était particulièrement pénible. Après course, la valeur de Mount Nelson augmenta de 16 livres (ou 7.5 kgs)! En conclusion : Se méfier du visiteur venant de gagner ou ayant gagné en terrain pénible surtout s’il est irlandais ou anglais ; d’autant plus que les courses outre-Manche sont souvent plus dures, elles produisent généralement des 2 ans plus précoces et plus combattifs, en particulier dans les bourbiers.

2000 Guineas 2009 - Trends over the past 12 years

May - 2000 GUINEAS - Newmarket - Rowley Mile
- Group 1, Class 1, 3 y-o colts & fillies - 1 mile

When one witnesses the result of any race, it seems obvious that were it ran again, the outcome might have been different. Draw, travel, ground, track profile, undulations, weight… all these parameters impact the outcome of a race and on the day horses need favourable conditions on their side. So what do we know ? What certainty or near certainty can we have about this race?
It is always a tricky exercise to pick a horse that's going to be in the frame, let alone pick the winner but at least I am confident that with some time and effort spent over the past runnings of this race, it is possible to get a profile of a 2000 Guineas winner.


One common point : All horses had at least 1 victory pre-race. Since 2000, with the exception of Golan, all competitors have been tried in Pattern company either Group I, II, or III where they all finished in the first three.

Ratings : All reached the crucial mark of 100+ (RPR or TS) at 2 year-old. Some mature sooner than others.

Late developers : Started off a moderate mark of 81+ and reached 100+ but no later than their 3rd outing. They are late developers but have this abilty to progress in leaps and bounds.
(Cockney Rebel, George Washington, Haafhd, King’s Best, Entrepreneur).

Early developers : Started off a high mark in the region of 100:
Henry The Navigator(95), FootstepsintheSand (97) Rock of Gibraltar (101) Golan (94), Island Sands (102), King of Kings (95) and Mark of Esteem (103).

Ability to handle Newmarket : All have had prep races on right-handed racecourses such as the Curragh, or Ascot, Newmarket or Longchamp.

Rapid Improvements : The most progressive sorts take part in the 2000 Guineas and all have shown ability to improve dramatically from their first run. Over the last 12 years, by a minimum of 11 lbs between their 1st, 2nd and/or 3rd outing. (See table). The most impressive are Haafhd (risen 27 lbs from its 1st win), Cockney Rebel (risen 22 lbs from its last outing) and Refuse to Bend (26 lbs).

Topspeed : Speed ratings, in a 93-115 bracket for the past 12 winners suggest that in their first races competitors have demonstrated high speed figures at 2 or 3 y-o. Entrepreneur’s speed rating unavailable.

Last run : Seems unimportant as Haafhd, Refuse to Bend and King’s Best were last seen out 3 weeks prior to the race and others ran last time out as 2 y-o, all absent from the track for more than 6 months.

Experience : All previous winners have seen a racecourse at least on 2 occasions whereas no colt who has had more than 6 races before the Guineas ever won. Rock of Gibraltar is the only colt to have had such experience. He ran for the 7th time in the Guineas.

Won last time out : The victor has often seen the winner’s enclosure last time out 10/13, but a defeat in the last run does not doom the chances of the potential winner. Henry the Navigator, Cockney Rebel, and King’s Best can all testify for that. However, a good placing, indicating a solid run, either 2nd or 3rd seems crucial.

Exception : The case of Golan. Only had one run under his belt, so it is fair to compare Golan’s only outing with the remainder’s (17 runners) first outing. He made his debut at Chepstow, a left-handed track, with pronounced undulations, not as gallopping as Newmarket. Scored ‘comfortably’ and this suggests that Newmarket will suit him even better. The Rowley Mile is a much more gallopping circuit. Won over 7 furlongs in 1’23’’60 (slow by 0.60s). That piece of information is crucial. Very few unraced colts could have achieved such a great time on a track with so many undulations. In the hands of Sir Michael Stoute, he has been able to mature and develop over the winter to go on to score on his return in the Guineas. Of all the runners he was the unique horse to have delivered in this fashion (slow by 0.60 sec). All other 17 runners ran their first maiden races in much slower times. Kieren Fallon was on board. Drawn 19, he had a favourable position in the stalls. All the ingredients were there. Horse, Jockey, Trainer, and draw.

For comparison purposes : Previous winners on their first outing :Henry The Navigator (slow by 1.10s) Cockney Rebel (slow by 3.01s) - George Washington (slow by 4.80s) - FootstepsintheSand (slow by 1.80s)- Haafhd (slow by 3.84s) -
Refuse to Bend (equals standard time) - Rock of Gibraltar (equals standard time) - King’s Best (slow by 2.93s) -
Island Sands (slow by 1.03s) - King of Kings (slow by 4.40s) - Entrepreneur (slow by 3.03s)-
Mark of Esteem (fast by 0.38s).