2000 Guineas 2009 - Trends over the past 12 years

May - 2000 GUINEAS - Newmarket - Rowley Mile
- Group 1, Class 1, 3 y-o colts & fillies - 1 mile

When one witnesses the result of any race, it seems obvious that were it ran again, the outcome might have been different. Draw, travel, ground, track profile, undulations, weight… all these parameters impact the outcome of a race and on the day horses need favourable conditions on their side. So what do we know ? What certainty or near certainty can we have about this race?
It is always a tricky exercise to pick a horse that's going to be in the frame, let alone pick the winner but at least I am confident that with some time and effort spent over the past runnings of this race, it is possible to get a profile of a 2000 Guineas winner.


One common point : All horses had at least 1 victory pre-race. Since 2000, with the exception of Golan, all competitors have been tried in Pattern company either Group I, II, or III where they all finished in the first three.

Ratings : All reached the crucial mark of 100+ (RPR or TS) at 2 year-old. Some mature sooner than others.

Late developers : Started off a moderate mark of 81+ and reached 100+ but no later than their 3rd outing. They are late developers but have this abilty to progress in leaps and bounds.
(Cockney Rebel, George Washington, Haafhd, King’s Best, Entrepreneur).

Early developers : Started off a high mark in the region of 100:
Henry The Navigator(95), FootstepsintheSand (97) Rock of Gibraltar (101) Golan (94), Island Sands (102), King of Kings (95) and Mark of Esteem (103).

Ability to handle Newmarket : All have had prep races on right-handed racecourses such as the Curragh, or Ascot, Newmarket or Longchamp.

Rapid Improvements : The most progressive sorts take part in the 2000 Guineas and all have shown ability to improve dramatically from their first run. Over the last 12 years, by a minimum of 11 lbs between their 1st, 2nd and/or 3rd outing. (See table). The most impressive are Haafhd (risen 27 lbs from its 1st win), Cockney Rebel (risen 22 lbs from its last outing) and Refuse to Bend (26 lbs).

Topspeed : Speed ratings, in a 93-115 bracket for the past 12 winners suggest that in their first races competitors have demonstrated high speed figures at 2 or 3 y-o. Entrepreneur’s speed rating unavailable.

Last run : Seems unimportant as Haafhd, Refuse to Bend and King’s Best were last seen out 3 weeks prior to the race and others ran last time out as 2 y-o, all absent from the track for more than 6 months.

Experience : All previous winners have seen a racecourse at least on 2 occasions whereas no colt who has had more than 6 races before the Guineas ever won. Rock of Gibraltar is the only colt to have had such experience. He ran for the 7th time in the Guineas.

Won last time out : The victor has often seen the winner’s enclosure last time out 10/13, but a defeat in the last run does not doom the chances of the potential winner. Henry the Navigator, Cockney Rebel, and King’s Best can all testify for that. However, a good placing, indicating a solid run, either 2nd or 3rd seems crucial.

Exception : The case of Golan. Only had one run under his belt, so it is fair to compare Golan’s only outing with the remainder’s (17 runners) first outing. He made his debut at Chepstow, a left-handed track, with pronounced undulations, not as gallopping as Newmarket. Scored ‘comfortably’ and this suggests that Newmarket will suit him even better. The Rowley Mile is a much more gallopping circuit. Won over 7 furlongs in 1’23’’60 (slow by 0.60s). That piece of information is crucial. Very few unraced colts could have achieved such a great time on a track with so many undulations. In the hands of Sir Michael Stoute, he has been able to mature and develop over the winter to go on to score on his return in the Guineas. Of all the runners he was the unique horse to have delivered in this fashion (slow by 0.60 sec). All other 17 runners ran their first maiden races in much slower times. Kieren Fallon was on board. Drawn 19, he had a favourable position in the stalls. All the ingredients were there. Horse, Jockey, Trainer, and draw.

For comparison purposes : Previous winners on their first outing :Henry The Navigator (slow by 1.10s) Cockney Rebel (slow by 3.01s) - George Washington (slow by 4.80s) - FootstepsintheSand (slow by 1.80s)- Haafhd (slow by 3.84s) -
Refuse to Bend (equals standard time) - Rock of Gibraltar (equals standard time) - King’s Best (slow by 2.93s) -
Island Sands (slow by 1.03s) - King of Kings (slow by 4.40s) - Entrepreneur (slow by 3.03s)-
Mark of Esteem (fast by 0.38s).