Rip Van Winkle : Murtagh or Ballydoyle ?

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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 3 JUNE 2009 - 23.12 pm
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Saturday will be Derby Day and whether John Magnier’s, Derrick Smith’s or Michael Tabor’s silks see the post first: it doesn’t really matter. What matters is a Ballydoyle success.

Johnny Murtagh will partner Rip Van Winkle and given this evidence, we would like to think that he is the stable’s first string. Potentially, he has to be the best colt. The only hitch is: So far it hasn’t been the case, and it is rather unsure whether Rip remains a Derby horse. One thing is certain though, if this is genuinely Murtagh’s pick, his mount must show something out of the ordinary during the morning gallops. Cautious, the bookies have taken very few chances and generally cut the price from 6 / 1 to 7/2.

Still, history tells us that High Chapparal did land the Derby and at the time he was perceived as Coolmore’s second string. Runner-up Hawk Wing was Mick Kinane’s choice...

Let’s assume for a minute that Coolmore’s interests prevail on Murtagh’s interests; a plausible scenario after all. I suppose, it is common sense to say that Aidan O’Brien is seeking the best partnerships. Who matches who? – in the best way –

I can’t get my head around this: On one hand, what would you choose between Fame and Glory, Black Bear Island and Rip Van Winkle ? To be perfectly blunt it’s a very hard call. Personally I am more inclined to select Fame and Glory but at any rate, it’s far from obvious.

On the other hand, it’s a much easier task to match both mounts and riders accordingly to their racing styles and past achievements. Seamie Heffernan has demonstrated great instincts with Fame and Glory. Golden Sword was given a most astute ride in the Chester Vase, courtesy of Colm O’Donoghue, equally well inspired in the Dante Stakes aboard Black Bear Island. The latter enjoys storming from behind, just like his pilot Ryan Moore. That’s another fit. Master of the Horse will be partnered by Richard Hughes known for his talent when it comes to judging the pace in a race, and justifiably so, he might be used to set the pace. Possibly by default - for lack of better words – Pat Smullen inherits the ride of Age of Aquarius. Conqueror of the Lingfield Derby Trial on his return to action, the Galileo colt displayed a most satisfying effort. Even so, compared to other runners, he doesn’t boast the best form but is certainly progressive and possesses plenty of room for improvement. I rate him as the dark contender.

Rip Van Winkle could be the most gifted but is quirky and a complicated ride. The way he finished in the 2000 Guineas was rather impressive; however the son of Galileo is inclined to hang or to lose his balance. Having been his jockey since his debut, Murtagh shouldn’t experience anymore trouble with him. If such is the case, there will be no excuses and let the best horse win!

But again, his capacity to stay over 1m4f remains to be seen. Again, stepping up a three year-old from eight to twelve furlongs is quite a bet. Rip Van Winkle’s stamina will be subject to a harsh test; the first mile might be run at a furious pace and if that wasn’t enough his pedigree doesn’t suggest that much stamina. Finally and that will conclude this article; prior to the Guineas, the RacingPost reported that his preparation had been hampered by a stone bruise. Will this incident be of any consequence on Saturday? In short, many ‘ifs’; but if Johnny Murtagh bags a fourth Derby, he will have landed a massive gamble!

So Murtagh or Ballydoyle ? Opinion : I would say both parties. The former sticks to his gut feeling and the latter can’t figure who stands out, are not over-confident, but can figure out the best matches, otherwise why put six competitors in the line-up?

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Sources : BBC TV - http;//www.racingpost.com -
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