June 2009 Investec Derby Trends

6 June – The Derby – Epsom Downs – Gr I, Class 1, 1m4f – 900,000 £ - 3yo - Classic
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By ARSENE ABITBOL - 7 May 2009 - 20.03 pm
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ONE COMMON POINT :
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All horses had at least 2 wins pre-race. 12/12
Since 1997, with the exception of Oath, all competitors have been tried in Pattern company either Group I, II, or III where they all finished in the first three.

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RATINGS :
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All reached the crucial mark of 107+ RPR or TS (RacingPostRatings – TopSpeed) at 3 year-old. 12/12.

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QUICK LEARNERS:
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As in any classic race, only the most progressive colts are thrown into the deep end and past winners have shown ability to improve dramatically from one run to another. In the make of a future champion, the first 3 runs count the most and positive signs are detected early.
Over the last 12 years all contestants, in their previous runs, have improved their rating by a minimum of 22 lbs between their 1st, 2nd and/or 3rd outing. 11/12.
The exception is Oath who nonetheless progressed in leaps and bounds during his 3 y-o campaign.

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TOP SPEED :
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Notoriously tough to win, The Derby associates both high cruising speed and stamina with a potential winner. It is a Classic, and there aren’t many Classics, only five of them.
All Speed figures BAR two range from 92 to 126 (RacingPost TopSpeed) 10/12.
Exceptions are High Rise (TS 78) and Galileo (TS 82) but their form read 1.1.1 ....for as many outings their best PR also read 119 and 107.

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LAST RUN :
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All made their reappearance in their 3 y-o campaign. Transition from 2 to 3 y-o is critical in Flat racing, trainers do need to assess their colts...It seems inconceivable to throw a colt straight in the Derby without having ran at 3yrs old.

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EXPERIENCE : BETWEEN 3 AND 7 OUTINGS :
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All previous winners have seen a racecourse at least on 3 occasions whereas no colt has had more than 7 appearances. New Approach and Benny the Dip were arguably the most experienced.

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DID THEY WIN LAST TIME OUT? :
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Not necessarily. However, a solid run is vital as none finished further than second. 12/12.
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EXCEPTION :
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The case of Oath. From 2 to 3 y-o risen 31 lbs! The Henry Cecil trained colt progress was that of a late developer. As a juvenile (2y-o), first three runs of very mediocre class ranging from 77 RPR to 87 RPR, Class 4 handicaps ratings....
Only, in his fourth outing (at 3y-o) did he showed considerable progress, boasting an impressive 20 lb rise (107 RPR) in weights followed by another 11 lbs courtesy of his Chester win (118 RPR - Listed Race), he was later promoted to Group III level (Kris Kin).

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OTHER FACTORS :
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About The Irish factor ...interesting to note that Sinndar (2000), Galileo (2001), High Chaparral (2002), and more recently New Approach (2008) are all in the hands of three top Irish trainers, respectively John Oxx, A.P.O’Brien and Jim Bolger all have contested two outings prior to the Derby.



sources : www.racingpost.com - www.wikipedia.org